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According to J. Safra Sarasin, the global economy has reached its peak. At 3.0 per cent, growth in Switzerland is expected to match that of the USA and outperform the eurozone this year. Employment prospects are good in North-West Switzerland.
Analysts at the J. Safra Sarasin Group project that the Swiss economy will grow by 3.0 per cent this year, which is the strongest rate in quite some time and almost double the 1.6 per cent registered for Switzerland last year. According to a press release from the Basel banking group, growth is already expected to slow next year, to 1.7 per cent. A similar forecast has been offered for other major economies. The Basel analysts predict that the USA will also grow by 3.0 per cent in 2018 as opposed to 2.2 per cent last year and 2.7 per cent for 2019. The eurozone has seemingly already passed its peak: growth was 2.4 per cent in 2017 and only 2.0 per cent is projected for the current year, dwindling further still to 1.7 per cent next year.
The economies of industrial countries are so strong that they are little affected by challenges such as the trade disputes triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump, the UK’s imminent departure from the EU and uncertainty in a number of emerging markets. “We believe that the markets are able to safely negotiate any potential obstacles that might lie in their way,” said Jan Amrit Poser, Chief Strategist and Head of Sustainability Research at J. Safra Sarasin.
However, the Basel bank also anticipates an increase in interest rates, as a response from the central banks of industrial countries to a rise in inflation. In the eurozone, it is expected to amount to 1.7 per cent this year, while the USA might even reach 2.5 per cent. At 1.1 per cent, it will also not be negligible in Switzerland in 2018, after virtually no hikes for many years.
The prospect of a normalisation in economic growth is also impacting employment prospects. The labour market barometer from Manpower Switzerland is slipping into the red for the fourth quarter, at minus 2 per cent. This shows that more employers intend to reduce than grow their staffing levels. North-West Switzerland – and this includes Basel – is the one great exception. here, the labour market barometer for the fourth quarter is an impressive plus 15 per cent. This is an increase of seven percentage points on the third quarter and even 20 points higher than in the fourth quarter of 2017.